Solar panels in San Francisco, CA: payback and output
A kW of south-facing panels in San Francisco produces about 1,561 kWh a year, 7% less than Los Angeles, the California reference city. Summer months produce 1.8× what winter does. To cover a typical 10,500 kWh/yr home on paper you'd need roughly 6.7 kW.
Output by month in San Francisco (kWh per kW)
Best: May · weakest: Dec.
Example 7 kW system in San Francisco
- Installed cost (example)
- $21,000
- Production, year 1
- 10,929 kWh
- Savings, year 1
- $3,529
- Payback
- 5.8 years
- 25-year net gain
- $93,285
Uses the California average price (33.61¢/kWh, EIA July 2026), full net metering and no incentives. Your utility's rate and export credit may differ — change them below.
Calculate your home in San Francisco
Estimated payback
5.8 years
A strong case: well inside the life of the panels.
≈ $294/month off your bill in year 1
- Year-1 savings
- $3,529
- 25-yr net gain
- $93,285
- Return (IRR)
- 18.3%
- Net cost
- $21,000
Cumulative savings minus cost
Production vs. use by month
10,929 kWh/yr
Covers 40% of your use directly; 38% of the output is used on the spot.
429 kWh/yr earn no credit. Your credits exceed a year of grid purchases and most utilities don't pay out the excess. A smaller system pays back faster.
Which size pays off best?
Same usage and prices, only size changes. Best 25-year gain: 8 kW.
| Size | Cost | Year-1 savings | Payback | 25-yr gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 kW | $9,000 | $1,574 | 5.8 years | $38,844 |
| 4 kW | $12,000 | $2,099 | 5.7 years | $52,625 |
| 5 kW | $15,000 | $2,624 | 5.7 years | $66,406 |
| 6 kW | $18,000 | $3,149 | 5.6 years | $80,187 |
| 7 kW | $21,000 | $3,529 | 5.8 years | $93,285 |
| 8 kW | $24,000 | $3,529 | 6.5 years | $94,044 |
| 10 kW | $30,000 | $3,529 | 8.0 years | $88,044 |
| 12 kW | $36,000 | $3,529 | 9.4 years | $82,044 |
Read the full California solar guide for net metering, orientation and price trends.
Other cities in California
Cities with similar sunshine
Data: NLR PVWatts v8 (U.S. DOE National Laboratory of the Rockies, formerly NREL), TMY weather near San Francisco (37.77, -122.42), 14% losses, retrieved 2026-10-11. Published 2026-10-14.