Solar panels in Fresno, CA: payback and output
A kW of south-facing panels in Fresno produces about 1,640 kWh a year, 2% less than Los Angeles, the California reference city. Summer months produce 2.1× what winter does. To cover a typical 10,500 kWh/yr home on paper you'd need roughly 6.4 kW.
Output by month in Fresno (kWh per kW)
Best: Jul · weakest: Jan.
Example 7 kW system in Fresno
- Installed cost (example)
- $21,000
- Production, year 1
- 11,476 kWh
- Savings, year 1
- $3,529
- Payback
- 5.8 years
- 25-year net gain
- $96,353
Uses the California average price (33.61¢/kWh, EIA July 2026), full net metering and no incentives. Your utility's rate and export credit may differ — change them below.
Calculate your home in Fresno
Estimated payback
5.8 years
A strong case: well inside the life of the panels.
≈ $294/month off your bill in year 1
- Year-1 savings
- $3,529
- 25-yr net gain
- $96,353
- Return (IRR)
- 18.4%
- Net cost
- $21,000
Cumulative savings minus cost
Production vs. use by month
11,476 kWh/yr
Covers 40% of your use directly; 37% of the output is used on the spot.
977 kWh/yr earn no credit. Your credits exceed a year of grid purchases and most utilities don't pay out the excess. A smaller system pays back faster.
Which size pays off best?
Same usage and prices, only size changes. Best 25-year gain: 7 kW.
| Size | Cost | Year-1 savings | Payback | 25-yr gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 kW | $9,000 | $1,653 | 5.5 years | $41,365 |
| 4 kW | $12,000 | $2,204 | 5.4 years | $55,987 |
| 5 kW | $15,000 | $2,755 | 5.4 years | $70,609 |
| 6 kW | $18,000 | $3,306 | 5.4 years | $85,230 |
| 7 kW | $21,000 | $3,529 | 5.8 years | $96,353 |
| 8 kW | $24,000 | $3,529 | 6.5 years | $94,044 |
| 10 kW | $30,000 | $3,529 | 8.0 years | $88,044 |
| 12 kW | $36,000 | $3,529 | 9.4 years | $82,044 |
Read the full California solar guide for net metering, orientation and price trends.
Other cities in California
Cities with similar sunshine
Data: NLR PVWatts v8 (U.S. DOE National Laboratory of the Rockies, formerly NREL), TMY weather near Fresno (36.74, -119.79), 14% losses, retrieved 2026-10-11. Published 2026-10-14.