Is Solar Worth It in Cloudy States? What the Numbers Show
Cloudy states can still see solar pay off when electricity prices are high. See output, prices and payback for the lowest-sunshine states.
Published 5 min readRoofPayback editorialChecked by automated fact and quality checks
Official data: EIA · DOE · IRS · how we check
In this article · 9 sections
Short answer
Yes, solar can still pay off in cloudy states. Sunshine matters, but the price you pay for electricity often matters more. In our example math, Vermont has far less yearly output per kW than Arizona. Yet its payback is shorter: 11.3 years in Vermont versus 13.9 years in Arizona, with full export credit.
That does not mean every cloudy home is a good fit. It means you should compare your own utility rate and your own quote, not just a sunshine map. Use the solar calculator to test your numbers.
How we measured it
All figures below come from one example home. Please keep its assumptions in mind:
- A 7 kW system and 10500 kWh a year of household use.
- 40% of use happens while the sun is up.
- Installed cost of $3500 per kW ($24500 total), with no incentives.
- $100 a year in maintenance.
- Electricity price rising 2.5% a year and panel output falling 0.5% a year.
- A 25-year horizon.
- Export credits capped at a year of grid purchases (an annual true-up).
Production comes from PVWatts v8, a free solar estimator from the U.S. Department of Energy's National Laboratory of the Rockies. We used south-facing panels, a 20° pitch, 14% losses and one reference city per state. Prices are EIA August 2026 averages for residential customers. The U.S. average was 18.16¢ per kWh. A kWh, or kilowatt-hour, is the unit your utility bills you for. Our methodology page has more detail.
The lowest-output states
Output is measured in kWh per year for each kW of panels. These are the lowest figures in our data:
| State (reference city) | Yearly output per kW | Price | Payback, full credit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska (Anchorage) | 922 kWh | 29.41¢/kWh | 12.1 years |
| Washington (Seattle) | 1088 kWh | 14.63¢/kWh | 19.6 years |
| Oregon (Portland) | 1128 kWh | 15.92¢/kWh | 17.6 years |
| Vermont (Burlington) | 1222 kWh | 23.84¢/kWh | 11.3 years |
| West Virginia (Charleston) | 1232 kWh | 16.31¢/kWh | 16 years |
| Connecticut (Hartford) | 1252 kWh | 24.51¢/kWh | 10.8 years |
Notice the pattern. Washington and Oregon have both low output and middling prices, so their paybacks are among the longer ones. Alaska, Vermont and Connecticut have low output but high prices, so their paybacks are much shorter. You can read more on the Washington, Oregon and Vermont pages.
Why price can outweigh sunshine
Solar saves you the price of each kWh your panels cover. A panel that makes fewer kWh but replaces expensive ones can still save more money.
Compare two states. Arizona (Phoenix) makes 1755 kWh per kW, but power costs 15.05¢ per kWh. Year-1 savings with full credit are $1580. Maine (Portland) makes only 1319 kWh per kW, but power costs 32.11¢ per kWh. Year-1 savings are $2964. Maine's payback is 8 years. Arizona's is 13.9 years.
Massachusetts shows the same thing. It makes 1302 kWh per kW and pays 30.48¢ per kWh, for a payback of 8.5 years. Nevada makes 1753 kWh per kW but pays 12.72¢ per kWh. Its payback is 16.1 years.
So a sunny place with cheap power can be a slower deal than a cloudy place with costly power. To see how rates differ where you live, check electricity prices by state and our guide on why prices differ by state.
Winter is the weak spot
Cloudy states also have big seasonal swings. The summer-to-winter ratio compares June to August output with December to February output. A higher ratio means weaker winters.
- Washington: winter 128 kWh and summer 417 kWh per kW, a ratio of 3.3.
- Oregon: winter 134 kWh and summer 423 kWh, a ratio of 3.2.
- Alaska: winter 57 kWh and summer 372 kWh, a ratio of 6.6.
- Florida, by comparison: winter 332 kWh and summer 395 kWh, a ratio of 1.2.
In winter, a cloudy-state system may cover little of your bill. In summer it may produce a lot. Over a year, these can balance out when your utility gives you credit for extra summer power. That credit is the key question. Net metering and similar programs vary by state and utility, and DSIRE keeps a database of current programs. Our guides on winter solar by state and net metering versus net billing explain the details.
What if export credit is lower?
Our main numbers assume full credit for exported power. Many utilities pay less. Here is how the payback changes for a few cloudy places:
| State | Full credit | Half credit | Quarter credit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 12.1 years | 15.6 years | 18.1 years |
| Vermont | 11.3 years | 14.7 years | 17.2 years |
| Oregon | 17.6 years | 22.4 years | Not within 25 years |
| Washington | 19.6 years | 24.6 years | Not within 25 years |
High prices cushion the blow. Vermont still pays back in 17.2 years at quarter credit. Oregon and Washington do not pay back within 25 years at that level. Your utility's actual rules could land anywhere on this range, so ask for them in writing. See also our guide on solar payback without the tax credit.
Costs and incentives to check
The 30% federal Residential Clean Energy Credit (Section 25D) is not available for property placed in service after December 31, 2025. Our example math assumes no incentives, so it does not rely on it. State or local programs may still exist, so check DSIRE.
Berkeley Lab reports a median installed price of $4.0 per watt for host-owned residential systems installed in 2024, before incentives. Cash-purchased systems had a median of $3.5 per watt and loan-financed systems $4.7 per watt. Our example uses $3500 per kW, which matches the cash-purchase median. If your quote is higher, your payback will be longer. The cost per watt guide shows why.
Next steps
- Find your current rate on your bill and compare it with the state figures above.
- Ask your utility how it credits exported power and whether credits reset each year.
- Get quotes and compare the price per watt.
- Run your own numbers in the solar calculator.
Bottom line
Low sunshine does not rule out solar. In our example, high-price states like Alaska, Vermont and Connecticut pay back faster than much sunnier states with cheap power. But low output plus an average price, as in Washington and Oregon, makes for long paybacks, especially if export credit is reduced. These are modeled estimates for one example home, not guarantees. Your roof, your use and your utility rules decide your real result.
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