Solar panels in Tennessee: payback, production and savings

In Nashville, each kW of south-facing panels produces about 1,339 kWh a year, #32 of 51 states for sunshine. Homes in Tennessee paid 13.71¢/kWh on average in July 2026 (#47 highest in the U.S.; national average 18.31¢), up 3.8% from a year earlier. Below-average power prices stretch the payback, so sizing and the export credit matter more.

Output by month (kWh per kW)

May is the best month (141 kWh) and Jan the weakest (76 kWh).

Example: 7 kW system, 10,500 kWh/yr home

	Full net metering	Credit ½ retail	Credit ¼ retail
Year-1 savings	$1,285	$930	$753
Payback	15.2 years	20.0 years	23.7 years
25-year net gain	$17,582	$6,875	$1,522

Assumptions, not quotes: $21,000 installed ($3,000/kW), no incentives, 40% of use during daylight, power prices +2.5%/yr. Change them below.

How roof direction changes output in Tennessee

kWh per kW per year, and the difference vs. south at 20°.

Facing	20° pitch	30° pitch
South	1,339 (+0%)	1,361 (+2%)
Southeast	1,294 (-3%)	1,301 (-3%)
Southwest	1,280 (-4%)	1,282 (-4%)
East	1,170 (-13%)	1,133 (-15%)
West	1,152 (-14%)	1,107 (-17%)
East-west (split)	1,161 (-13%)	1,120 (-16%)

What to check before going solar in Tennessee

How your utility credits exports. Net metering rules differ by state and by utility, and several states have moved to lower "net billing" credits worth a fraction of the retail rate. The example table shows three cases; look up your utility's current program in the DSIRE database.
Federal tax credit. The 30% residential clean energy credit does not apply to systems placed in service after December 31, 2025 (IRS). Count only state or utility incentives that are still open.
Your real price per kWh. Divide your bill's energy and delivery charges by the kWh used; fixed monthly fees don't go away with solar.

Run your own numbers in Tennessee

Your roofLocation

FacingRoof pitch

System sizekWA typical modern panel is 0.4 kW.

Your usageAnnual electricity usekWh/yrAdd up 12 months of bills. U.S. homes average roughly 10,000–11,000 kWh.Use while the sun is up%30–40% if nobody is home during the day; 50–60% if you work from home.

PricesElectricity price$/kWhBlank = Tennessee average from EIA ($0.137/kWh). Use your bill's all-in rate.Credit for exported powerInstalled cost$/kWYour quote divided by system size. Example value.Rebates and incentives$The 30% federal credit ended for systems placed in service after Dec 31, 2025.

Advanced

Maintenance & insurance$/yrElectricity price change%/yrAssumption. Try 0% for a conservative case.

First-year savings

$1,285

Payback

15.2 years

25-year net gain

$17,582

Return (IRR)

4.8%

Production vs. use by month

9,370 kWh/yr produced · covers 40% of your use directly · 45% of output used on the spot.

Production Use

Which size pays off best?

Same usage and prices, only size changes. Best 25-year net gain: 8 kW.

kW	Cost	Year-1 savings	Payback	25-yr gain
3	$9,000	$551	16.5 years	$6,107
4	$12,000	$734	15.9 years	$8,976
5	$15,000	$918	15.6 years	$11,844
6	$18,000	$1,101	15.3 years	$14,713
7	$21,000	$1,285	15.2 years	$17,582
8	$24,000	$1,440	15.1 years	$20,379
10	$30,000	$1,440	17.8 years	$16,672
12	$36,000	$1,440	20.5 years	$10,672

Estimate based on NLR PVWatts and EIA data. See the methodology.

States with similar sunshine

Data: NLR PVWatts v8 (U.S. DOE National Laboratory of the Rockies, formerly NREL), TMY weather for Nashville (36.16, -86.78), 14% losses, retrieved 2026-10-11. Prices: U.S. EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A (July 2026). Methodology.